Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 12/8/2009

SHORT-TERM TREND (10 days or less). Tilted slightly in favor of lower rates and higher investor prices.

LONG-TERM TREND (11 days or more) Tilted in favor of higher rates and lower investor prices.

Commentary: Global stock markets fell hard earlier today as pessimistic news reports trumpeting details of a resurgent credit crisis in Dubai and a major downgrade in the sovereign debt of Greece sent foreign stock investors scrambling to park capital in the relative safe haven of U.S. debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities. This "flight-to-quality" buying spree in the government debt and mortgage market is a welcome but likely temporary development.

Uncle Sam will be in the credit markets today looking to sell a stack of 3-year notes worth $40 billion. The auction will conclude at 1:00 p.m. ET and is expected to be well bid - hopefully setting the stage for an equally well bid $21 billion 10-year note sale tomorrow and a $13 billion 30-year bond offering on Thursday. Look for today's auction to exert little, if any meaningful influence on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates.

Be patient - be disciplined - and play it by the numbers.


THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

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Beaverton, OR, United States
David is a loan officer for American Pacific Mortgage. He has worked in the lending industry since 2000. Prior to that he invested 19 years in the insurance industry. He enjoys helping people finance the purchase of their dream home.

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